Does NFL Free Agency Work? Ranks all 32 teams by value over the past 3 seasons

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NFL free agency begins the negotiating period Monday at noon ET, and teams will begin taking steps to build and rebuild their rosters for the 2023 season.

As the league continues to grow, the focus and buzz around this part of the calendar is greater. The players’ movement always gets enthusiasm and a good cause. Free agency gives teams the opportunity to infuse their rosters with elite talent as long as they spend their money in the right places.

But how much impact does free agency really have? As this year’s window opens, we set out to answer that question.

The methodology for our study is relatively simple. Using contract statistics from Over the Gap, we determined the amount of money each team spent on 657 free agent signings over the past three seasons – from 2020 to 2022.

Here are some parameters: We only included free-agent signings who received at least $1 million in cash, and we also included free agents who signed before the start of the regular season. So offseason signings like Odell Beckham Jr., who joined the Rams in November 2021, aren’t factored in. Players who have re-signed with the team are also not included. The money number was calculated only for seasons in which a player was under his free-agent contract. If a player signs an extension, we stop counting money from the year the extension takes effect.

Next, we need to calculate a value for each player’s on-field production. Unfortunately, there is no perfect solution for this. Football still doesn’t have a reliable all-encompassing value statistic like WAR — Wins Above Replacement — in baseball. But Pro Football Reference has a statistic called Approximate Value (AV) that is as close as we can get. This is not perfect and is something to keep in mind when reviewing the results of our study. Pro Football Reference describes AV as “the attempt to put a single number on a player’s season value at any position from any year (since 1960).” You can find a full explanation of how AV is calculated here Here.

We entered the money spent and approximate value for each of the 657 free agents. Using those statistics, we can calculate how much money each team has spent on free agents over the past three seasons and the total approximate value those free agents have produced.

Once we had the data, there were many ways to organize it to create different rankings.

Let’s sort by total AV produced to see which teams have gotten the most value in free agents over the past three seasons, regardless of money spent.

To see which teams were most active in free agency, let’s sort by money spent.

Dividing the estimated value by the millions in money spent produces an estimate of how much each team generates per million spent — an indication of which teams have been most efficient in free agency over the past three seasons.

Free agents can be ranked individually to see which players produced the highest total AV and which players produced the highest AV per $1 million earned.

Let’s get inside.

No big surprise here given the team’s lead in free-agent AV produced over the past three seasons. The Bengals built their defense mostly through free agency, and those free agents were a big part of Cincinnati’s Super Bowl run in 2021. Safety Von Bell, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, defensive linemen Larry Ogunjobi and DJ Reeder, and cornerbacks Sidope Awzi, Evsi and Mike Hilton have been key parts of that unit.

The Packers have been the least active team in free agency over the past three seasons, spending $18.9 million on free agents. No other team has spent less than $51.5 million, which is a stark testament to how the Packers have gone about building their roster in recent seasons. Some of that, of course, is how much cap space they used on Aaron Rodgers.

Bakers advance from last place to first when organizing data by AV per million produced. They didn’t spend much in free agency, but if they did, they were successful. Small sample size is a factor here. The Packers have spent just over $1 million on seven outside free agents over the past three seasons. But the biggest difference maker was linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. The Packers paid him $2.5 million in cash in 2021, and Campbell made 14 AV as a first-team All-Pro. He then signed a five-year, $50 million extension in 2022.

The Bengals dropped to 19th in AV per million. Trey Waynes contract signed through 2020 took a huge toll on Cincinnati’s numbers. The Bengals paid Waynes $30.86 million in cash over two seasons. He played in only five games and produced just 1 AV.

Most of the teams that ranked highest on the AV per million list spent less in free agency, but were more efficient in how they spent their money. The one exception is the Texans, who have taken a more attractive approach to free agency. Over the past three seasons, Houston has signed 39 outside free agents who earned at least $1 million in cash, including 36 over the past two seasons. None of those 36 free agents made more than $5.5 million. They didn’t have any home run success stories, but found some value in the middle and lower tiers of free agents.

The Titans had some big mistakes like Vic Beasley (0 AV for $9.5 million in cash) and Bud Dupree (9 AV for $33.93 million), which is why they finished last in this ranking.

Teams have had success targeting edge rushers on the free-agent market. Leonard Floyd, Matthew Juden, Hendrickson and Robert Quinn are among the top 10 in total AV produced while on their free-agent contracts.

The Patriots have received a lot of criticism for their 2021 free agent class, namely the large contracts they gave Hunter Henry and Jonu Smith. Those two deals certainly affected New England’s AV per million numbers. However, they did have two big hits in that group — Juden and defensive tackle Daven Kotsachs, who ranked in the top 10 in total AV produced for free agents over the past three seasons. The Pats finished 16th in AV per million.

Safety Dashaun Gibson Sr. has outperformed his contract in two of the past three seasons, appearing in our top 10 twice — with the Bears in 2020 and with the 49ers last season. He made just $1.05 million in those two seasons. Gibson agreed to terms Sunday evening, returning to the 49ers on a one-year, $2.9 million deal.

Campbell’s 2021 contract is one of the best signed over the past three seasons.

Agholor caught 48 passes for 896 yards and eight touchdowns with the Raiders in 2020, and he leads the AV with a million carries that season. He cashed in on a $26 million contract with the Patriots in 2021 and hasn’t produced at the same level in New England. These are the highs and lows of free agency.

The Chargers’ Morgan Fox was just outside the top 10, ranking 11th in AV per million. He finished 2022 with 6 AV and earned just $1.19 million.

(Top photo of Matthew Juden and Jack Conklin: Nick Gamett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)