Major events
If you’re joining us: Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (pronounced Lula) won the majority of votes in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, but not enough to avoid a runoff against him. -Right contender, incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
With more than 98% of the votes counted, Lula had 48% – less than the 50% needed to secure an outright victory.
Brazil’s Electoral Commission has confirmed that Brazilians will vote in a runoff election on October 30.
Reuters Global Climate Correspondent Jake Spring:
Ricardo Salles, Brazil’s former environment minister@rsallesmmaAs he is sure to be elected as a federal congressman, he will go back to Brasilia. He presided over a massive increase in deforestation in the Amazon. pic.twitter.com/KHnLO2cYHA
— Jake Spring (@jakespring) October 2, 2022
From the Guardian’s Latin America Correspondent Tom Phillips:
Here’s how a Bolsonaro activist in northeastern Brazil describes the results to followers. “We have much to celebrate,” he writes pic.twitter.com/UHmLBRVaUy
— Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) October 2, 2022
Tom Phillips
Thiago Ambaro, an academic and columnist for Folha de São Paulo newspaper, said the stronger-than-right-wing showing showed that Bolsonaro and Bolsonaro were “alive and kicking.”
“There was a sense among the left that Lula had a chance of winning in the first round … The results show that imagining the election would be a scapegoat for Bolsonaro’s disastrous policies during the pandemic is wishful thinking.”
“I feel tired,” Amparo added. “But the results show that we have no time to rest now. It’s time to take to the streets…otherwise we’re going to have a dark future again.
Tom Phillips
More on tonight’s result:
“I think Bolsonaro has momentum,” said Rio de Janeiro-based political observer Thomas Tramon, though he believed Lula was still the favorite. “It was a very disappointing night for the left.”
Bolsonaro has been accused of wreaking havoc on the environment, undermining vaccination and containment efforts and catastrophically mishandling the Covid pandemic, which has killed nearly 700,000 Brazilians.
“It’s a joke-slash-tragedy,” restaurant host Gabriela Leoncio said of Bolsonaro’s administration when she voted for Lula on Sunday morning in Sao Paulo.
Nevertheless, Bolsonaro confounded pollsters’ predictions in several key states, including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
Prominent Bolsonaros were elected to Brazil’s Congress and state governors, including Bolsonaro’s former health minister, Rio’s congressman Eduardo Pazuelo, and his former environment minister, Ricardo Salles. Claudio Castro, the Bolsonaro-backed governor of Rio, was re-elected, while one of Bolsonaro’s most controversial former ministers, the evangelical preacher Tamares Alves, won a seat in the Senate. Darcio de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s candidate for governor of Sao Paulo, fared better than pollsters had predicted and will face Lula ally Fernando Haddad in the second round.
Right-wing victories from Lula and his allies and the need for a second round became clear.
Lula wins the vote, but not outright
Tom Phillips
Brazil’s tight presidential election will go into a second round after the former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva He failed to secure the overall majority he needed to avoid a run-off with the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
With 97% of the votes counted, the leftist had 47.88%, not enough to avoid a clash with his right-wing rival on October 30. Bolsonaro, well ahead of pollsters’ predictions and buoyed by the result, won 43.68%.
Speaking ahead of the election, Lula said he was confident of winning the first round and would redouble his bid to regain power if a second round was necessary.
“I hope this election will be decided tomorrow, but if it isn’t, we have to behave like a football team when a match goes to extra time. We rest for 15 minutes and then we go back on the pitch to score goals that we didn’t score in normal time,” he told reporters.
The election results are a blow to progressive Brazilians who were rooting for a landslide victory over former army captain Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly attacked the country’s democratic institutions and damaged Brazil’s international reputation.
And we’re almost there – it looks like Lula will have won this round, at least. But a run-off against Bolsonaro is almost guaranteed at this point.
Tonight we bring you Lula’s speech.
The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, waits to hear from Lula after a disappointing night.
With almost 97% of the votes counted, the result will be known in half an hour.
We expect Lula to address the press soon after the election results are confirmed. In many ways a dark night for the left, a tighter result than Bolsonaro’s continued victories and polls suggest. Pollsters said 50/36. Looks like 48/43 is over pic.twitter.com/DVZCLxmjoe
— Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) October 3, 2022
Here’s some analysis of what’s happening tonight from The Associated Press.
Neither of the top two candidates will receive more than 50% of the valid vote in Brazil’s national elections, excluding spoiled and blank ballots, with a second round of voting scheduled for October 30.
“We will most likely get to the second round,” said Nara Bavao, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “Now the probability of finishing the election (in the first round) is very small.”
Carlos Melo, a professor of political science at Insper University in São Paulo, said, “The extreme right has shown a huge backlash in the federal and state races.
“It is too early to go too deep, but this election shows that Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was not a hiccup,” he added.
Bolsonaro has done best in Brazil’s southeastern region, which includes the populous states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, according to Rafael Cortes, who oversees political risk at the Tendencias Consultoria consultancy.
“The polls don’t capture that growth,” Cortes said.
With the vote count almost over, a first-round victory looks out of reach for Lula, meaning he could face Bolsonaro in a runoff on October 30.
Lula’s victory in that round was far from certain.
Political economist Philippe Campante:
To my non-Brazilian followers: make no mistake about it, the odds in Brazilian democracy look significantly bleaker now than they did 24 hours ago. Bolsonaro has a real shot at winning the runoff, and then we’re in deep trouble.
— Filipe Campante (@FilipeCampante) October 2, 2022
Andrew Downey reports for the Guardian from Sao Paulo:
Two big Senate wins for Brazilian president in southern Brazil Jair Bolsonaro. In the state of Paraná, Sergio Moro won the election with 33.6% of the vote, while in Rio Grande do Sul, Hamilton Mourao returned home with 44.3% of the vote.
A former army general, Morao was Bolsonaro’s vice president, while Moro was the judge who presided over the car wash trial that led to Lula’s jailing in 2017.
Bolsonaro was appointed Moreau was his Minister of Justice But his image as an anti-corruption fighter was damaged when senior courts overturned his decision to imprison Lula and freed the former president.
A Investigation by Intercept It showed that Moro colluded with prosecutors to prejudice Lula’s defense.
He tried to run for president, but his campaign never got off the ground, and after back-and-forth talks with parties in at least two different states, he opted to run for Senate in his home state.
Mourão, meanwhile, defeated veteran PT figure Olivo Dutra, the former governor of Rio Grande do Sul.
Lula now leads by almost 4% – but not enough votes to avoid a run-off with Bolsonaro. And the count is almost over.
“Lifelong social media lover. Falls down a lot. Creator. Devoted food aficionado. Explorer. Typical troublemaker.”