This is a match-up of stylistic differences. Nate The Great has been waiting for a shot like this for quite some time. He’s got solid skills on the ground after fighting Pancrase for most of his MMA career. Silva has brutal KO power in both hands, and will look to keep the fight standing for the duration. The obvious ploy for Nate is to look to shoot and get Silva down on the ground, where he will use his ground and pound and submission skills to gain points. Silva’s takedown defense isn’t his best attribute, and it’s likely Marquardt will be able to secure takedowns when he wants/needs. Silva’s hands can change the fight at any moment, but Nate is a smart fighter who will not play to his opponent’s strengths if he can help it. Nobody stays undefeated in the UFC forever. I’ll take Nate the Great as an underdog here and watch his hand raised after a victory.

Prediction: Nate Marquardt via 4th round stoppage.

KenFlo has his mojo working, and is looking to step back up into the lightweight title picture. He’s got decent ground game, and has nasty strikes which can open up cuts (See Florian vs. Sherk for the lightweight title). Haven’t been able to see much of Robinson’s game, but if he shoots in on Florian, he’s in for a quick night, as Kenflo’s much improved striking has shown since he came down to the 155 division. This one should be quick as well, although now that I’ve said that, expect a decision…

Prediction: Florian via TKO.

Going under my theory of “nobody stays undefeated in the UFC for long,” one would expect Tito Ortiz to win this fight. But Rashad Evans has really looked good, and for some time. He’s thrown together an undefeated UFC record, and now goes against Tito, who has been the poster boy for “How not to renew your contract.” Fights with his bosses. Toots his own horn. Beating Forrest Griffin and blaming knee injuries. Whatever the case, Tito always manages to tell you what he thinks. While there’s no “I” in team, Ortiz must realize that his time as a UFC force is quickly coming to an end, while Rashad’s uprising is at the beginning. Evans has surprised me recently with the ease in which he wrestles and strikes, lending some credence to his collegiate wrestling skills. We’ve yet to really, really see him on his back for a prolonged period of time and what he does with a stronger opponent. Ortiz has the reach here, but Tito’s not what you would call the strongest puncher around. However, he does have a big heart. He might just be out to prove he’s not a stepping stone at this stage of his career. Or, this may be the fight that signals the end of Tito and his mouth in the UFC. He’s been a mainstay, love him or hate him. Ugh, I’m going out on a limb again to make a questionable pick. I can feel it. Sorry, Rashad. If you prove me wrong again, I deserve it.

Prediction: Ortiz via decision.

Sherk is a powerful beast in the ring, but it’s tough to prepare for a guy like Hermes Franca, who has solid jiu-jitsu combined with crazy diesel-power punches. Some of the blows Franca can land and the angles from which they come are simply unreal. Combine his crazy-reckless style with him throwing in a bunch of submissions from his guard, and it’s tough to see why Sherk is more than a 2-1 favorite in this fight. Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but I’m thinking this one should be more even than listed. Sherk has serious conditioning, and his cardio is really on, but one would think a guy built like Sherk would have serious KO power. Haven’t really seen it yet. Franca will certainly be more active early, especially in guard, and that’s where his chances could be best to end it quickly, with Sherk almost certain to attempt to bring Franca to the mat at some point, or else be forced to defend against bombs that even Franca doesn’t know when will be coming. I think I’m going crazy, but I’ll go with the guy who’s reeled off 8 straight victories. Franca’s a great value pick at +220 on the books.

Prediction: Franca via submission.

Forget the fact these two have fought before, and forget about the law of averages. Herring hasn’t shown much in his UFC fights, and Minotauro’s not about to lose his UFC debut to a guy he’s dominated before. Herring will most likely shoot in at some point, and try to dominate Nogueira from the top position. Pick your poison, because it’s likely Minotauro will just throw out submission after submission and make Herring work as hard from the top as he would defending punches from the bottom. Crazy Horse doesn’t have it all together mentally, either, and has really just looked average each time he’s stepped into the UFC octagon. While he might get up physically for this fight, it’s tough to get mentally ready for a guy who has thrown 2 of your 12 losses on your record. This one won’t go for very long.

Prediction: Minotauro via submission.

Dark Matches:

Jorge Gurgel via submission over Diego Saraiva

Chris Lytle via TKO over Jason Gilliam

Stephan Bonnar over Mike Nickels via TKO

Frank Edgar over Mark Bocek