Southern California in the house--  Two fighters from the same area looking for another super-fight and potential title shot.   Vargas, while undefeated in his last four fights, hasn’t really shown much other than struggle, going the distance in his last two mediocre fights.   His weight issues and back problems are the true concern here, because Vargas is certainly stronger and has a better shot at a KO against a less-powerful Mosley.   You always hear talk about how Vargas is going to come out and fight like a house of bricks, then he gasses after a few rounds and goes on cruise control, giving his opponents a shot to get back in the game. 

On the same side, Mosley hasn’t been the same fighter since beating De la Hoya.  I haven’t seen Sugar’s speed lately as you did when he was fighting at 135 and had power.   Gone are the days of the four-five punch combos; he basically is trying to put together 1-2 power combos and outlast other fighters, who have equal or more strength than he does at the 154 level.   Sugar still has some sweetness left in his tank, and I’d like to think he’s going to come out and BOX Vargas instead of getting into a punch-for-punch with a fighter known for a warrior mentality. 

Bottom line—You’ve got to believe Vargas’ weight and back troubles may not yet be behind him, which is why he enters the fight as a +160 dog.   Vargas can only win this fight by KO, as he hasn’t shown he has the stamina to last with Sugar down the stretch and pick up those key late rounds.   I could see Vargas winning a majority of the early rounds, but fading down the stretch as the back pain becomes too much to bear.   Mosley won’t knock Vargas out, but he should win the fight by decision.   

I’ll lay the odds and take Mosley (-185) and the Over (10.5 rounds).  I feel better about the Over than Sugar, but it’s an official Mosley by decision for those “We-need-a-pick-people.”  If you are able to do a parlay or combo, Mosley/Decision may look good, but there’s really not that much value there.   You’d almost be better off putting 50 bucks on the draw at 17-1 and hoping Vargas runs out of gas. 

Good luck to everyone!

Questions? Comments? Write David L. Ross, Esq.  

2-23-2006