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“The crown of a good disposition is
humility” (Arab Proverb)
It is not only the crown of good disposition, but also that of the newly crowned
Middleweight Champion Kelly Pavlik. Many of us watched Pavlik’s rise through
the Middleweight ranks, and it was no different than the man’s persona, humble
but unyielding. Some of us were surprised by the outcome of the Taylor vs.
Pavlik fight, and some of us were not.
Taylor has everything to prove and everything to gain in this anticipated
rematch. Coming off of a string of unspectacular fights and staunch
criticism from fight fans and even his native Arkansas fans, Taylor is walking
the proverbial plank. Should he take the dive into the deep waters of
another slugfest with Pavlik, he may find that his abilities to stay afloat are
dwindling. The shark that swims in those waters is quietly waiting, and
humbly hungry.
That is not to say that Taylor is by any means shot, or old
beyond his young 29 years, but rather that his past strategies will not help him
in this rematch. He has gotten by on strength and speed in many of his
past fights, leaving a tight defense and technical offense by the wayside.
When Taylor is on his jab, he is brilliant, but when he abandons it and looks to
use head movement and right hand leads, he is mediocre at best. And while
his athletic abilities have helped him in the past, they will not suffice
against a man of the height and strength of Pavlik. The lazy left hand
positioning of Taylor, when standing at guard, is amateurish, and ineffective.
Roy Jones and Floyd Mayweather utilize such a lead hand stance and they are the
only two who can pull it off given their cat-like reflexes. Should Taylor
continue this bad habit, Jack Loew, Pavlik’s coach, may be right in his
assessment that Taylor will pay for his mistakes in this second bout. To
accumulate the problems of this flaw, Taylor does not have the speed to pull it
off.
A lazy left hand is the one thing that a fighter with a strong right hand
relishes in his opponent. Pavlik proved this basic boxing principle in the
first fight.
Pavlik has many
advantages coming into this fight. Look past the obvious physical
advantages of height and reach. The catch weight of 166 pounds, while
proposed by the Taylor camp, is only an advantage for the larger Pavlik.
There is no doubt that both men struggle to reduce down to the Middleweight
limit of 160, but given Pavlik’s frame and maturity, this will be a huge
advantage. Pavlik also has the mental advantage coming into the fight.
He has remained humble and hungry, even after winning the belt. The
confidence of coming off a knockout win always lends to a more relaxed and
patient fighter come fight night.
Pavlik is a product of
his environment, and in Youngstown, nothing comes easily or cheap. Because
of this environment, when something of value is gained, it is appreciated and
guarded. Do not look for Pavlik to come in careless or amateurish because
of his first win over Taylor. It would not be surprising to see Pavlik
enter with an even tighter defense and a more controlled ring generalship.
Both fighters have punching power, and are
relatively strong and young. Both are Champions and both are coming to win.
This contest is going to be largely determined by who lends precision to Defense
and quick, crisp punching. When you mix in Pavlik’s height, weight, and high
guard, it is hard to pick against the rangy Champion. It also helps to hit like
a Mack truck.
Pavlik TKO by the 8th
round.
Mago Cepeda
02-14-2008
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