Seven months ago was the last time I was able to watch my favourite boxer fight and at the end of the bout I was left a little flat as Kostya Tszyu had easily outpointed Ben Tackie over 12 repetitive rounds. The bout never reached any great dramatic climaxes and did not provide any real excitement. This left me feeling pleased for Tszyu's win but very flat concerning what I had come to expect from a Tszyu fight, even his bouts with Mitchell & Urkal had more excitement.

In just over two weeks time Kostya Tszyu will defend his undisputed crown against Jesse James Leija and it is hard for me to see this bout lasting any longer than six rounds unless Tszyu decides to take his time, something he has down more during the last three to four years. Although Leija is a respectable fighter he has a lot going against him facing Tszyu. For the first time I can remember, Tszyu is fighting someone shorter than himself, both fighters reach is about the same, Tszyu is much quicker, Tszyu has better boxing skills, Tszyu hits much harder and Tszyu is the naturally bigger man.

What does Mr. Leija have going for him in this bout? Two things have caught my attention:

1.) EXPERIENCE!
Leija has fought a few better fighters than Tszyu has faced like De La Hoya, Mosley and Azumah Nelson. He has also fought top quality opponents like Gabe Ruelas, Juan Lazcano, Micky Ward & Hector Camacho Jnr. Leija was beaten by most of these guys (he has beaten Nelson twice and the Lazcano bout was very controversial) and his bouts with Ward & Camacho Jnr had questionable decisions made by officials. Leija has also had more professional bouts than Tszyu. Will this help Jesse? No, as Tszyu has defeated more talented and tougher fighters easily.

2.) PREPARATION TIME!
Leija finds himself in a position where he has had nearly six months notice to train for this bout. According to reports I have read, Leija has said he has never really had adequate time to prepare for a major bout, no excuses this time round. Will this time to prepare work to his advantage? In my opinion yes. Will it be enough to win the fight? NO!

In all of the bouts I have seen Leija fight, he has put on a good solid performance (except De La Hoya) and I expect the same in two weeks time! Leija's skills, speed, endurance, chin and power are all good, making him a well rounded fighter but I do not consider any of these attributes to be in the exceptional category. I don't think even if Tszyu was in ordinary shape like he was for his bouts with Vince Phillips & Hector Lopez that Leija would still stand a chance beating him, as in 1997 Vince Phillips was a much sharper boxer than Leija has ever been. At the time he defeated Tszyu, Phillips possessed very good hand speed, technique and power. I don't think Leija has the same capabilities.

From what I understand, Tszyu has had a flawless preparation for this bout. Tszyu sacrifices a lot during this time and I was actually exhausted after reading his training routine in the Daily Telegraph (A Sydney, Australia Newspaper). Kostya Tszyu is preparing for a tough fight and is not taking any short cuts, nor is he taking Leija lightly.

When the action commences, I see Tszyu establishing a jab early and dictating the pace of the fight. Leija has said he won't stand in front of Tszyu, but Jesse is no Sharmba Mitchell or Zab Judah when it comes to being light on his feet or offering lateral movement. Tszyu has been able to out box taller fighters with longer reach than Leija and Tszyu has done it from long range (Jan Bergman, Hugo Pineda, Oktay Urkal & Diosbelys Hurtado). If Leija moves inside he will be exposed to Kostya's superior strength and punching power. If Leija tries to brawl or tries to rough things up he will come out second best again. I just hope that Leija does choose to spoil the fight like Roger Mayweather did in his 1995 bout with Kostya, I hope Jesse puts up a respectable showing and tries to win the bout rather than trying to survive.

This fight could end quickly as Tszyu is more powerful than De La Hoya, Mosley and Nelson, who have all stopped Leija. Jesse also has a tendency to cut in recent bouts. Kostya may take his time breaking down his man like he did with Miguel Angel Gonzalez and Ahmed Santos. If Julio Cesar Chavez could not see out 6 rounds with Tszyu, its hard for me to comprehend Leija getting to the seventh, especially if Kostya is more generous with his body punching than he was in the Tackie bout.

What I don't want to see is a controversial decision made over a cut or Leija take a sustained beating like Rafael Ruelas, Miguel Angel Gonzalez or Ahmed Santos; although these situations are a distinct possibility.

My main concern is who Tszyu is going to fight next. I can worry about such things as a fan because Tszyu himself is not thinking any further than Leija. The WBC has stated that Tszyu must face Gianluca Branco next or be stripped of their version of the title. This is very unreasonable as Branco really hasn't done much to keep his ranking, he should at least fight an elimination bout. Also Sharmba "Little Big Mouth" Mitchell (Ranked IBF No.7) is now poised to claim the IBF No.2 position should he defeat Carlos Vilches (Ranked IBF No.11). To think the winner of this bout will be ranked higher by the IBF than Arturo Gatti (who defeated the higher ranked Micky Ward) in my opinion is just insane! I just hope that Zab Judah gets out of his managerial dispute and fights Mitchell for the IBF No.1 position, he deserves a rematch more than Mitchell, he didn't quit on his stool.

Other difficult things for me to understand are:
1) The fact that Arturo Gatti seems more interested in fighting Micky Ward for a third time as apposed to fighting for the undisputed championship? I suppose he wants an easier fight for about the same money and will still expect an instant shot at Tszyu afterward. Arturo, you may miss your chance!

2) Ricky Hatton seems hell bent on fighting Junior Witter? Puzzle of puzzles here, if Hatton's team pressured the WBC a bit more, he might find himself in an elimination bout with Gianluca Branco for the WBC No.1 slot. I can see the WBC forcing Hatton to fight Gatti or Mayweather, Jnr (if he moves up to Super Lightweight) in an official eliminator, they might even just slot Mayweather in at No.1.

The thing that annoys me the most is that the viewing public will not get to see Tszyu fight the best opponents because of politics and hidden agendas. Instead we will see him against fighters who have nothing to lose or no profile to protect. Or could it be that fighters like Gatti and Hatton know what they are in for if they fight Tszyu and are reluctant to risk their reputation or undefeated record by raising their hand to fight the best fighter at 140 pounds? Very sad indeed!

 
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